With a view to the whole of 2016, the global economy is expected to continue to grow at a moderate pace. The prospects for the advanced economies will be boosted by the favorable financing conditions and the continuing growth in employment. In contrast, the outlook for the emerging economies remains subject to greater uncertainty. The economic estimates by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) concerning global development are 3.1 percent for 2016, which is slightly below previous expectations. In addition, the risks for the world economy have increased following the Brexit referendum.
Expectations of a moderate economic recovery in the eurozone remain unchanged. The IfW expects real GDP growth of 1.7 percent in 2016. In Germany, moderate economic growth is expected to continue; the IfW’s estimates for growth in real GDP for 2016 are slightly below previous expectations at 1.9 percent. Economic expansion in France is expected to accelerate slightly in 2016 with real growth of 1.6 percent. On the other hand, expectations for economic recovery in the UK have been lowered; this year, the IfW expects real GDP to grow by only 1.8 percent. For the United States, the IfW also expects real GDP to grow by 2.0 percent in 2016, which is lower than previous expectations.
These expectations remain subject to a high level of uncertainty due to difficulties in forecasting economic developments. Certain risks remain for the global recovery. Geopolitical crises, government deficits, currency turbulence or the high rates of unemployment in some developed countries could interfere with economic development. In addition, high volatility in the financial markets is creating uncertainty. The resulting developments could adversely affect the economic situation, which is a key factor influencing Bertelsmann’s business development.
Bertelsmann confirms the forecast. On a comparable basis with the forecast details from the Annual Report 2015, Bertelsmann still expects slightly increasing revenues and stable operating EBITDA for the current financial year. Also, due to increased invested capital, expectations of strongly declining BVA in the financial year 2016 remain unchanged.
These forecasts are based on Bertelsmann’s current business strategy, as outlined in the “Company Profile” section. In general, the forecasts reflect careful consideration of risks and opportunities and are based on operational planning and the medium-term outlook for the corporate divisions. All statements concerning potential economic and business developments represent opinions advanced on the basis of the information that is currently available. Should underlying suppositions fail to apply and/or further risks arise, actual results may differ from those expected. Accordingly, no assurances can be provided concerning the accuracy of such statements.